Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-01-22 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 67.9%

MTL: 32.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.16

MTL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

COL

D. Kuemper

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	30	28	2	93.3%	2.70	2	0.70
MTL	Cayden Primeau	46	43	3	93.5%	3.43	0	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	28	0	1.56
1	MTL	17	2	1.16
2	COL	13	0	0.79
2	MTL	13	0	0.79
3	COL	12	0	0.67
3	MTL	10	0	0.76
4	COL	4	0	0.41
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.2 - 2.9