Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-01-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 44.9%

CGY: 55.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.05

CGY: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

EDM

M. Koskinen

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Koskinen	47	44	3	93.6%	3.43	1	0.43
CGY	J. Markstrom	31	26	5	83.9%	3.11	5	-1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	1	0.65
1	CGY	24	0	1.52
2	EDM	14	1	0.80
2	CGY	14	1	1.03
3	EDM	10	3	1.65
3	CGY	18	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3