Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2022-01-22 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 1 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 54.4%
TBL: 45.6%
Expected Goals
SJS: 3.03
TBL: 3.31
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
J. Reimer
TBL
B. Elliott
| Stat | SJS | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | J. Reimer | 31 | 24 | 7 | 77.4% | 3.71 | 1 | -3.29 |
| TBL | B. Elliott | 28 | 27 | 1 | 96.4% | 2.39 | 0 | 1.39 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | TBL 4 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-03 | SJS 3 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-02 | SJS 2 - 1 TBL | SJS | TBL |
| 2024-12-05 | TBL 8 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-21 | SJS 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | 12 | 0 | 0.47 |
| 1 | TBL | 22 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 2 | SJS | 18 | 0 | 1.16 |
| 2 | TBL | 7 | 0 | 0.51 |
| 3 | SJS | 20 | 0 | 0.75 |
| 3 | TBL | 16 | 0 | 1.25 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 1 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 3.3
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