Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-23 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

Win Probability

PIT: 68.4%

WPG: 31.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.51

WPG: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	28	2	93.3%	4.27	4	2.27
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	41	38	3	92.7%	4.68	2	1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	1.22
1	WPG	11	1	1.09
2	PIT	14	0	0.79
2	WPG	12	0	0.85
3	PIT	17	0	0.92
3	WPG	10	1	0.78
4	PIT	4	1	0.67
4	WPG	5	2	1.38
5	PIT	3	1	1.07
5	WPG	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8