Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-01-24 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 3 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

PHI: 47.1%

DAL: 52.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.70

DAL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

C. Hart

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	36	33	3	91.7%	3.25	1	0.25
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	27	1	96.4%	2.49	1	1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • PHI at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.78
1	DAL	14	0	0.78
2	PHI	17	0	0.90
2	DAL	15	0	0.87
3	PHI	12	1	0.81
3	DAL	15	1	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2