Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2022-01-25 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 5 - 0 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 53.6%
BUF: 46.4%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.09
BUF: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
M. Murray
BUF
A. Dell
| Stat | OTT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | M. Murray | 32 | 32 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.97 | 0 | 1.97 |
| BUF | A. Dell | 48 | 43 | 5 | 89.6% | 4.48 | 1 | -0.52 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs BUF: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | OTT 4 - 1 BUF | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-12-23 | OTT 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-10-15 | BUF 8 - 4 OTT | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-04-01 | OTT 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-03-25 | BUF 3 - 2 OTT | BUF | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OTT | 19 | 0 | 1.54 |
| 1 | BUF | 14 | 0 | 0.79 |
| 2 | OTT | 21 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 2 | BUF | 11 | 0 | 0.54 |
| 3 | OTT | 23 | 0 | 1.39 |
| 3 | BUF | 10 | 0 | 0.63 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 5 - 0 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0
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