Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2022-01-25 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 1 - 5 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 63.4%
DAL: 36.6%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.23
DAL: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
A. Schmid
DAL
B. Holtby
| Stat | NJD | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | A. Schmid | 32 | 27 | 5 | 84.4% | 3.15 | 5 | -1.85 |
| DAL | B. Holtby | 37 | 36 | 1 | 97.3% | 3.02 | 1 | 2.02 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 10% • NJD at home vs DAL: 0-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | DAL 4 - 6 NJD | NJD | DAL |
| 2025-12-03 | NJD 0 - 3 DAL | DAL | NJD |
| 2025-03-04 | DAL 4 - 3 NJD | DAL | NJD |
| 2025-02-22 | NJD 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | NJD |
| 2024-03-14 | DAL 2 - 6 NJD | NJD | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJD | 14 | 0 | 0.73 |
| 1 | DAL | 9 | 1 | 0.65 |
| 2 | NJD | 14 | 0 | 0.99 |
| 2 | DAL | 18 | 0 | 1.14 |
| 3 | NJD | 25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 3 | DAL | 10 | 4 | 1.35 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 1 - 5 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8
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