Arizona Coyotes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-25 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

PIT: 68.7%

ARI: 31.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.91

ARI: 2.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	16	13	3	81.2%	1.30	0	-1.70
ARI	K. Vejmelka	36	30	6	83.3%	2.67	0	-3.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs ARI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-22	ARI 5 - 2 PIT	ARI	PIT
2023-12-12	PIT 4 - 2 ARI	PIT	PIT
2023-01-08	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2022-10-13	PIT 6 - 2 ARI	PIT	ARI
2022-03-19	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PIT	13	0.57
1	ARI	6	0.26
2	PIT	13	0.99
2	ARI	10	0.72
3	PIT	15	1.11
3	ARI	8	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.9 - 2.2