San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-01-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 50.3%

SJS: 49.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.95

SJS: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

I. Samsonov

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	30	26	4	86.7%	3.77	2	-0.23
SJS	J. Reimer	33	32	1	97.0%	3.76	1	2.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs SJS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	SJS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.97
1	SJS	21	1	1.75
2	WSH	18	1	1.63
2	SJS	10	0	0.47
3	WSH	20	0	1.16
3	SJS	11	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2