Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-01-27 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 57.0%

ANA: 43.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.32

ANA: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

ANA

A. Stolarz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Cayden Primeau	24	19	5	79.2%	1.97	0	-3.03
ANA	A. Stolarz	40	36	4	90.0%	3.17	0	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs ANA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MTL 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	MTL
2026-03-06	ANA 6 - 5 MTL	ANA	ANA
2025-02-02	ANA 3 - 2 MTL	ANA	MTL
2024-12-09	MTL 3 - 2 ANA	MTL	MTL
2024-02-13	MTL 5 - 0 ANA	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MTL	19	0.95
1	ANA	12	0.85
2	MTL	16	1.00
2	ANA	7	0.32
3	MTL	13	1.22
3	ANA	12	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3