Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-01-27 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.4%

CAR: 45.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.91

CAR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

OTT

M. Murray

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	31	28	3	90.3%	4.98	3	1.98
CAR	Frederik Andersen	42	40	2	95.2%	3.33	0	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • OTT at home vs CAR: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	0	0.61
1	CAR	21	0	1.52
2	OTT	24	0	1.34
2	CAR	13	0	0.85
3	OTT	15	0	0.89
3	CAR	16	2	1.53
4	OTT	3	0	0.28
4	CAR	2	0	0.08
5	OTT	3	0	0.20
5	CAR	2	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1