New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-01-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TBL: 68.7%

NJD: 31.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.75

NJD: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

J. Gillies

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	31	2	93.9%	2.55	0	0.55
NJD	J. Gillies	35	32	3	91.4%	4.06	1	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs NJD: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	0	1.76
1	NJD	15	0	1.00
2	TBL	16	0	0.81
2	NJD	14	0	0.80
3	TBL	10	1	1.49
3	NJD	9	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9