Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-28 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.0%

DET: 47.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.41

DET: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

PIT

C. DeSmith

DET

C. Pickard

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	34	31	3	91.2%	4.00	2	1.00
DET	C. Pickard	40	38	2	95.0%	2.85	1	0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs DET: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.35
1	DET	16	0	0.66
2	PIT	21	1	1.38
2	DET	13	0	1.30
3	PIT	19	0	0.88
3	DET	9	1	0.77
4	PIT	1	0	0.04
4	DET	4	0	0.26
5	PIT	3	0	0.21
5	DET	2	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0