Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2022-01-28 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 55.3%

COL: 44.7%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.01

COL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

CHI

M. Fleury

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	M. Fleury	27	21	6	77.8%	4.32	3	-1.68
COL	P. Francouz	43	39	4	90.7%	3.02	1	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • CHI at home vs COL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CHI 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-02-28	COL 3 - 1 CHI	COL	COL
2025-11-23	CHI 0 - 1 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-02	CHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-10	COL 3 - 0 CHI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	14	0	0.55
1	COL	11	0	0.35
2	CHI	14	0	0.75
2	COL	17	0	1.01
3	CHI	25	1	1.72
3	COL	10	3	2.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2