Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-01-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

DAL: 48.1%

WSH: 51.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.92

WSH: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

B. Holtby

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	B. Holtby	29	24	5	82.8%	2.68	0	-2.32
WSH	V. Vanecek	29	29	0	100.0%	2.77	0	2.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DAL	18	1.38
1	WSH	28	1.47
2	DAL	13	0.78
2	WSH	10	0.85
3	DAL	13	0.61
3	WSH	5	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0