Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-01-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

Win Probability

TBL: 48.9%

VGK: 51.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.10

VGK: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	27	6	81.8%	5.93	4	-0.07
VGK	R. Lehner	35	30	5	85.7%	6.68	5	1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	8	0	0.54
1	VGK	13	0	0.69
2	TBL	11	0	0.81
2	VGK	15	0	1.07
3	TBL	21	2	2.05
3	VGK	3	0	0.19
4	TBL	5	0	0.60
4	VGK	3	0	0.36
5	TBL	7	3	2.68
5	VGK	7	4	3.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0