Buffalo Sabres at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-01-29 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

ARI: 48.2%

BUF: 51.8%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.34

BUF: 4.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	35	32	3	91.4%	3.73	0	0.73
BUF	C. Anderson	28	27	1	96.4%	3.92	4	2.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ARI at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2023-12-16	ARI 2 - 0 BUF	ARI	ARI
2023-12-11	BUF 5 - 2 ARI	BUF	BUF
2022-12-17	ARI 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2022-11-08	BUF 1 - 4 ARI	ARI	BUF
2022-01-29	ARI 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	14	1	1.47
1	BUF	14	0	1.25
2	ARI	7	0	0.47
2	BUF	23	0	1.88
3	ARI	22	3	1.98
3	BUF	5	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 4.3