Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-30 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 64.5%

LAK: 35.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.18

LAK: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

LAK

C. Petersen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	38	34	4	89.5%	2.78	1	-1.22
LAK	C. Petersen	26	23	3	88.5%	2.94	1	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs LAK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-09	PIT 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-16	LAK 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	LAK
2025-01-20	LAK 1 - 5 PIT	PIT	LAK
2024-12-17	PIT 3 - 2 LAK	PIT	LAK
2024-02-18	PIT 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.77
1	LAK	14	0	0.60
2	PIT	16	1	1.67
2	LAK	17	0	0.88
3	PIT	11	0	0.50
3	LAK	15	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0