Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-01-30 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

COL: 72.1%

BUF: 27.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.20

BUF: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

D. Kuemper

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	31	30	1	96.8%	2.56	0	1.56
BUF	D. Tokarski	36	32	4	88.9%	3.93	2	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	0	0.83
1	BUF	9	0	0.51
2	COL	20	0	1.31
2	BUF	13	0	0.75
3	COL	8	2	1.79
3	BUF	18	0	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.2 - 2.5