San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-02-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 59.6%

SJS: 40.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.48

SJS: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	90.5%	2.51	1	0.51
SJS	J. Reimer	32	29	3	90.6%	3.23	1	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs SJS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.68
1	SJS	8	0	0.74
2	TBL	12	1	1.15
2	SJS	12	0	1.16
3	TBL	19	0	1.11
3	SJS	10	0	0.41
4	TBL	3	0	0.29
4	SJS	1	1	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0