Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-02-01 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 43.0%

WPG: 57.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.87

WPG: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

PHI

C. Hart

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	33	32	1	97.0%	2.05	0	1.05
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	33	3	91.7%	4.14	4	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • PHI at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	WPG
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	2	1.29
1	WPG	8	0	0.46
2	PHI	12	0	0.62
2	WPG	17	0	1.01
3	PHI	22	2	2.23
3	WPG	15	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4