Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-02-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.0%

WSH: 46.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.11

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	28	4	87.5%	3.29	1	-0.71
WSH	V. Vanecek	47	44	3	93.6%	4.58	3	1.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	2.17
1	WSH	14	1	1.29
2	PIT	26	1	1.43
2	WSH	8	0	0.85
3	PIT	15	0	0.67
3	WSH	14	0	0.71
4	PIT	2	0	0.31
4	WSH	4	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0