Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-02-01 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

VGK: 66.9%

BUF: 33.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.61

BUF: 2.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

R. Lehner

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	32	30	2	93.8%	2.96	1	0.96
BUF	C. Anderson	35	30	5	85.7%	4.29	1	-0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.28
1	BUF	11	0	0.60
2	VGK	23	0	1.63
2	BUF	21	1	1.26
3	VGK	14	0	1.38
3	BUF	11	0	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 2.3