Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-02-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

TBL: 52.3%

EDM: 47.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.07

EDM: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	27	3	90.0%	3.40	0	0.40
EDM	M. Smith	23	18	5	78.3%	3.00	2	-2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	6	0	0.44
1	EDM	14	0	1.20
2	TBL	14	1	1.29
2	EDM	15	0	0.96
3	TBL	12	1	1.27
3	EDM	19	0	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9