Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-02-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

TOR: 56.9%

MIN: 43.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.57

MIN: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

P. Mrazek

MIN

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	30	29	1	96.7%	2.42	0	1.42
MIN	K. Kahkonen	25	22	3	88.0%	2.51	1	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.42
1	MIN	10	0	0.50
2	TOR	13	0	0.46
2	MIN	14	0	0.84
3	TOR	15	1	1.64
3	MIN	17	0	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1