Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-02-24 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 35.1%

WSH: 64.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.51

WSH: 3.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	36	1	97.3%	3.37	1	2.37
WSH	I. Samsonov	21	17	4	81.0%	1.96	0	-2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • NYR at home vs WSH: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.90
1	WSH	13	0	0.78
2	NYR	10	0	0.47
2	WSH	14	0	1.12
3	NYR	7	0	0.59
3	WSH	17	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.5 - 3.8