Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-02-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 61.4%

COL: 38.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.93

COL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

VGK

L. Brossoit

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	21	18	3	85.7%	2.04	2	-0.96
COL	D. Kuemper	36	34	2	94.4%	2.96	1	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	1	1.52
1	COL	8	0	0.46
2	VGK	15	0	0.82
2	COL	14	1	1.12
3	VGK	17	0	0.62
3	COL	4	1	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0