Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-02-27 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 58.8%

PIT: 41.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.06

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	40	37	3	92.5%	3.01	1	0.01
PIT	C. DeSmith	34	32	2	94.1%	4.06	4	2.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CBJ at home vs PIT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	CBJ
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	15	1	0.78
1	PIT	23	1	1.19
2	CBJ	16	2	2.27
2	PIT	20	0	1.17
3	CBJ	13	1	1.02
3	PIT	15	0	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1