St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-02-22 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

PHI: 48.1%

STL: 51.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.09

STL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

M. Jones

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	26	22	4	84.6%	6.08	6	2.08
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	25	1	96.2%	2.43	0	1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.71
1	STL	19	2	2.15
2	PHI	13	0	0.79
2	STL	18	1	1.68
3	PHI	15	0	0.92
3	STL	6	3	2.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1