Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2022-03-01 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 58.0%
OTT: 42.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.16
OTT: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA
OTT
M. Murray
| Stat | TBL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 27 | 25 | 2 | 92.6% | 2.57 | 2 | 0.57 |
| OTT | M. Murray | 22 | 17 | 5 | 77.3% | 2.18 | 0 | -2.82 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs OTT: 6-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | OTT 6 - 2 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-28 | TBL 4 - 2 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TBL | 11 | 0 | 0.73 |
| 1 | OTT | 9 | 1 | 0.76 |
| 2 | TBL | 16 | 0 | 1.18 |
| 2 | OTT | 11 | 0 | 0.63 |
| 3 | TBL | 6 | 0 | 0.27 |
| 3 | OTT | 13 | 1 | 1.17 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9
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