San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-03-01 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

VGK: 70.0%

SJS: 30.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.82

SJS: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

R. Lehner

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	17	16	1	94.1%	1.09	0	0.09
SJS	J. Reimer	31	28	3	90.3%	3.42	2	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • VGK at home vs SJS: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.96
1	SJS	8	0	0.34
2	VGK	13	0	0.96
2	SJS	6	0	0.29
3	VGK	12	2	1.50
3	SJS	9	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7