St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-03-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 48.0%

STL: 52.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.96

STL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

STL

V. Husso

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	29	3	90.6%	3.09	2	0.09
STL	V. Husso	29	24	5	82.8%	3.73	2	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs STL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	STL 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-11-24	NYR 3 - 2 STL	NYR	STL
2024-12-15	STL 3 - 2 NYR	STL	STL
2024-11-25	NYR 2 - 5 STL	STL	NYR
2024-03-09	NYR 4 - 0 STL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.41
1	STL	12	1	0.96
2	NYR	12	0	0.85
2	STL	14	0	1.13
3	NYR	23	2	2.47
3	STL	15	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2