Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-03-03 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.0%

PIT: 48.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.26

PIT: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	40	35	5	87.5%	4.55	1	-0.45
PIT	Tristan Jarry	21	20	1	95.2%	2.37	2	1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	0	0.60
1	PIT	24	0	1.16
2	TBL	12	1	1.00
2	PIT	17	0	1.50
3	TBL	12	1	0.78
3	PIT	18	1	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0