Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-03-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 63.6%

BOS: 36.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.38

BOS: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

R. Lehner

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	36	31	5	86.1%	4.23	4	-0.77
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	36	34	2	94.4%	2.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VGK at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	0	0.63
1	BOS	12	1	0.81
2	VGK	16	0	0.87
2	BOS	17	1	1.25
3	VGK	15	0	0.68
3	BOS	15	2	2.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7