Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-03-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

BUF: 59.6%

MIN: 40.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.78

MIN: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

C. Anderson

MIN

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	33	29	4	87.9%	2.10	1	-1.90
MIN	K. Kahkonen	38	33	5	86.8%	3.69	3	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-17	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.51
1	MIN	19	1	1.05
2	BUF	21	0	1.24
2	MIN	12	0	0.60
3	BUF	16	3	1.94
3	MIN	11	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9