Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-03-04 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TBL: 67.8%

DET: 32.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.60

DET: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

B. Elliott

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	23	22	1	95.7%	1.95	0	0.95
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	38	35	3	92.1%	4.47	2	1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • TBL at home vs DET: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	1.16
1	DET	12	0	0.69
2	TBL	29	1	1.83
2	DET	10	0	0.83
3	TBL	13	1	1.48
3	DET	10	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0