Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2022-03-04 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 56.9%

VGK: 43.1%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.23

VGK: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	35	30	5	85.7%	2.75	1	-2.25
VGK	L. Brossoit	24	20	4	83.3%	2.51	0	-1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs VGK: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	ANA
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	7	0	0.33
1	VGK	11	0	0.65
2	ANA	18	0	1.38
2	VGK	22	0	1.13
3	ANA	12	0	0.79
3	VGK	15	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4