Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 61.9%

VAN: 38.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.50

VAN: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

J. Campbell

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	29	23	6	79.3%	3.51	2	-2.49
VAN	Thatcher Demko	38	34	4	89.5%	4.37	2	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TOR at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.72
1	VAN	16	0	1.11
2	TOR	21	1	1.85
2	VAN	17	0	0.98
3	TOR	27	1	1.81
3	VAN	7	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8