St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-05 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

NYI: 54.8%

STL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.98

STL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	30	1	96.8%	2.43	2	1.43
STL	Jordan Binnington	20	18	2	90.0%	3.04	2	1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	STL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	STL
2025-11-22	NYI 1 - 2 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-23	NYI 3 - 1 STL	NYI	NYI
2024-10-17	STL 1 - 0 NYI	STL	STL
2024-03-05	NYI 4 - 2 STL	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	1	1.10
1	STL	10	0	0.42
2	NYI	11	1	1.42
2	STL	10	1	0.68
3	NYI	8	0	0.51
3	STL	19	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1