Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-03-05 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 41.2%

CGY: 58.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.83

CGY: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

D. Kuemper

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	37	33	4	89.2%	2.44	0	-1.56
CGY	Dan Vladar	36	33	3	91.7%	2.52	1	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • COL at home vs CGY: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	1	0.71
1	CGY	22	0	1.24
2	COL	13	0	0.83
2	CGY	14	0	0.35
3	COL	20	0	0.97
3	CGY	16	0	0.66
4	COL	0	0	0.00
4	CGY	1	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3