Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-03-05 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 59.1%

MTL: 40.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.88

MTL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

EDM

M. Smith

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	29	24	5	82.8%	3.61	2	-1.39
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	28	2	93.3%	2.96	3	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • EDM at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	1	1.05
1	MTL	14	1	1.50
2	EDM	16	1	1.28
2	MTL	14	0	0.73
3	EDM	10	1	0.63
3	MTL	10	1	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 3.2