Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-03-06 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 51.3%

DAL: 48.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.49

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

MIN

K. Kahkonen

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	K. Kahkonen	26	20	6	76.9%	5.63	8	-0.37
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	32	3	91.4%	3.60	2	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • MIN at home vs DAL: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	0	0.85
1	DAL	15	0	1.09
2	MIN	13	1	1.13
2	DAL	16	2	1.07
3	MIN	23	1	1.62
3	DAL	9	6	3.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1