Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-03-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

VGK: 72.0%

OTT: 28.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.94

OTT: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

R. Lehner

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	40	39	1	97.5%	3.05	2	2.05
OTT	Anton Forsberg	42	40	2	95.2%	2.61	0	0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	0.96
1	OTT	17	0	0.68
2	VGK	20	0	1.16
2	OTT	13	1	0.91
3	VGK	13	0	0.48
3	OTT	20	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8