Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-07 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

NYI: 44.3%

COL: 55.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.05

COL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	49	44	5	89.8%	4.94	3	-0.06
COL	P. Francouz	36	32	4	88.9%	2.89	0	-1.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • NYI at home vs COL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	8	0	0.29
1	COL	20	1	1.40
2	NYI	17	0	0.99
2	COL	21	0	1.17
3	NYI	21	0	1.60
3	COL	21	2	2.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2