Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-03-07 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CBJ: 38.1%

TOR: 61.9%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.73

TOR: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	28	5	84.8%	4.24	5	-0.76
TOR	P. Mrazek	35	31	4	88.6%	3.61	2	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CBJ at home vs TOR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	10	1	0.90
1	TOR	20	1	1.49
2	CBJ	17	0	1.23
2	TOR	20	4	2.27
3	CBJ	20	1	1.48
3	TOR	9	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 2.7