Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2022-03-08 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 62.6%
COL: 37.4%
Expected Goals
NJD: 2.88
COL: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA
COL
D. Kuemper
| Stat | NJD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.939 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 1.60 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | Nico Daws | 26 | 23 | 3 | 88.5% | 2.77 | 2 | -0.23 |
| COL | D. Kuemper | 43 | 38 | 5 | 88.4% | 4.27 | 0 | -0.73 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs COL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | COL 8 - 4 NJD | COL | COL |
| 2025-10-26 | NJD 4 - 3 COL | NJD | COL |
| 2025-02-26 | COL 5 - 1 NJD | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-08 | NJD 0 - 4 COL | COL | NJD |
| 2024-02-06 | NJD 5 - 3 COL | NJD | NJD |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJD | 21 | 0 | 1.52 |
| 1 | COL | 13 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 2 | NJD | 23 | 0 | 1.38 |
| 2 | COL | 9 | 0 | 0.46 |
| 3 | NJD | 14 | 0 | 1.37 |
| 3 | COL | 17 | 1 | 1.24 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.9 - 3.2
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