Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-08 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

CGY: 48.1%

WSH: 51.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.97

WSH: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	22	5	81.5%	3.87	2	-1.13
WSH	V. Vanecek	35	31	4	88.6%	2.82	0	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs WSH: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.59
1	WSH	14	0	0.91
2	CGY	19	0	1.23
2	WSH	16	0	1.07
3	CGY	18	0	1.00
3	WSH	14	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0