Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-03-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

PIT: 61.5%

VGK: 38.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.32

VGK: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 55%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	42	40	2	95.2%	2.73	1	0.73
VGK	L. Brossoit	33	28	5	84.8%	4.39	4	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs VGK: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	2	1.95
1	VGK	11	0	0.32
2	PIT	13	1	1.29
2	VGK	23	1	1.57
3	PIT	10	1	1.15
3	VGK	17	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9