Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-03-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (OT)

Win Probability

VAN: 44.8%

WSH: 55.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.20

WSH: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	34	30	4	88.2%	3.57	1	-0.43
WSH	V. Vanecek	26	23	3	88.5%	2.21	1	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • VAN at home vs WSH: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	VAN 4 - 3 WSH	VAN	WSH
2025-10-19	WSH 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	WSH
2025-01-25	VAN 2 - 1 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-01-08	WSH 2 - 1 VAN	WSH	VAN
2024-03-16	VAN 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	1	0.91
1	WSH	15	0	0.79
2	VAN	14	0	0.50
2	WSH	19	0	1.51
3	VAN	13	0	0.80
3	WSH	11	1	1.09
4	VAN	0	0	0.00
4	WSH	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2