New York Rangers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-03-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 7 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 67.2%

NYR: 32.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.22

NYR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	22	7	75.9%	3.03	1	-3.97
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	29	4	87.9%	3.40	1	-0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	NYR
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	0	0.95
1	NYR	17	0	1.05
2	DAL	18	1	1.88
2	NYR	11	0	0.98
3	DAL	12	0	0.57
3	NYR	8	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 7 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8